The spot market maintains "high premium and low trading volume", with SHFE tin prices trading sideways at a high level [SMM Tin Morning News]

July 4, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) pulled back after a slight rise during the night session, closing near 269,100 yuan/mt, up 0.04% slightly from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The US Congress approved comprehensive tax and budget legislation on Thursday, meaning the $7,500 tax credit for purchasing or leasing new EVs will expire on September 30, along with the $4,000 used EV credit. (Bearish★) (2) MIIT held the 15th manufacturing enterprise symposium: Regulating the PV industry's low-price disorderly competition through legal and comprehensive measures. (Bullish★) (3) Tariffs - ① Von der Leyen: The EU aims to reach a "principled agreement" with the Trump administration by July 9. ② US Treasury Secretary: Warned tariffs could revert to April 2 levels, with about 100 countries expected to face at least 10% reciprocal tariffs. Trump will decide whether to extend the July 9 deadline. ③ Japanese PM: Trump may be misled on some tariff issues. ④ Indonesia will sign a $34 billion trade and investment MoU with the US. ④ Trump may notify trading partners of unilateral tariff rates as early as Friday. ⑤ Canadian Finance Minister: Can negotiate the best trade deal with the US, no digital tax.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tightening tin ore supply in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters potentially maintaining maintenance shutdowns or slight production cuts in July (Bullish★) (2) Demand side: PV industry: Post-installation rush, tin bar orders declined in east China with lower operating rates at some producers; Electronics: End-users in south China entered off-season amid high tin prices, showing strong wait-and-see sentiment with only essential orders; Other sectors: Stable demand in tinplate and chemical industries without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: "High premiums, low trading volume" prevailed as downstream showed strong fear of high prices, purchasing only for essential needs. Traders' daily volume reached about 10 mt, reflecting significant negative feedback from high prices.
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